- The price sensitivity of your customers
- Your partners’ biggest priorities & challenges
- The macro forces - e.g., technology - that are having the greatest influence on your industry
Which of your existing assumptions are most ripe for "busting"?
Let's warm up with a little target practice. In the cross-hairs today: Laundromats
Let's make "assumption busting" a little more concrete by looking at one of my favorite examples of an industry with assumptions ripe for busting, the glamorous world of Laundromats. I currently live across the street from one of the thousands of fluorescent-bathed Laundromats that dot the streets of New York City. I've had the pleasure of living in New York most of my life, and have sampled a myriad of the City's laundry establishments. While they all tend to look a little different - the age of the machines, the color of the walls, the out-of-order sign hanging above the change machine - they all share one thing in common. They are some of the most unpleasant spaces to spend time in, only slightly edging out the Post Office and the DMV.
So what exactly is going on here? Is the aesthetic appeal of Laundromats simply a reflection of the economics of the business model - i.e., fluorescent lighting & lime-colored paint are all that Laundromats can afford given their thin profit margins? Tell Howard Schultz, the
It's not about the bottom line
The bottom line on Laundromats is simple - it's not about the bottom line. Laundromats are unpleasant places not because they cannot afford to look nicer, but because their owners have come to assume, whether explicitly or implicitly, that customers are satisfied with the existing price/value paradigm. And, given the dearth of available alternatives, it’s reasonable to conclude that customers are in fact (relatively) satisfied.
Were Laundromat operators to BUST existing assumptions regarding the role that a Laundromatcould play in people’s lives, and, for example, make Laundromats more hospitable places to spend time,
How do I locate busting opportunities within my industry?
An easy way to determine whether an assumption is critical to your business is to ask, "If this assumption proved to be wrong, how much would my business suffer?" If you assess the potential impact to be excessive - e.g., you could lose your most important customers, miss out on explosive growth opportunities, be made extremely vulnerable to competitors, or be put out of business altogether - then the assumption is a critical one.
Categories under which critical assumptions typically fall include assumptions regarding products, prospects & customers, competitors, the industry, organizational structure & competencies, partners & suppliers, technology, and the macro environment. (Below I have provided examples of some common types of critical assumptions)
Completing step 1 often serves as a major eye-opener. Businesspeople frequently find it challenging to identify even a few of their most critical assumptions. Often this is because over time a company’s critical assumptions have become so ingrained within the company’s DNA that they have become all but invisible to most employees1. Organizations that find themselves in such circumstances place themselves at great risk to external "surprises" – or what I like to refer to as things organizations would have seen coming had they actively monitored their critical assumptions!
Step 2
- Is this assumption still valid, or is it ripe for busting? How would I find out? Does my business have processes that allow for efficient, low-risk validation of this assumption? (I.e., can we easily test whether this assumption has busting-potential?) If we learn that the assumption is ripe for busting, what does it imply for our business strategy, our products, our marketing, our organizational structure, etc.? What activities or projects should we start/stop/increase/reduce?
- How can I effectively monitor this assumption on an ongoing basis? Does my business have the flexibility to respond quickly & effectively to changes to this assumption?
- If we learn that this assumption is still valid are there any activities or projects that we should start/stop/increase/reduce?
When you’re done, move onto another category (e.g., Technology) and run through the exercise again. Run through this exercise for each category over the course of a week or two, and see what you come up with. As you become more comfortable with this exercise you can start to bring busting-based thinking into your organization, leading the effort to push for the deep, strategic thinking that is in dangerously short supply in our modern corporations.
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